2022 Election Results: What the Numbers Tell Us
To find detailed analyses of all C2C-backed candidates’ 2022 races,
please see the Election Results Page.
Even though a lot of people only come out to vote for Presidential elections, at County-to-County we know that every election counts.
In 2010, we learned what happens when folks get complacent and don't come out to vote in midterm elections. For the first time in 100 years, Democrats lost control of both houses of the state legislature and, as a result, lost control of the redistricting process as well as the ability to define the issues that receive priority and a vote in the legislature.
The goal of County-to-County is to take back control of the State Legislature so that we can achieve fair voting districts, integrity of the vote counting process, affordable health care, equitable education, and good jobs for all North Carolinians. Since 2016, Orange County Democrats have partnered with neighboring counties through County-to-County to share resources and help build the infrastructure they need to elect Democrats to the North Carolina House and Senate.
Our work at County-to-County is, first and foremost, an effort to restore democracy in North Carolina. With nearly equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters, North Carolina is a purple state, yet Republican gerrymandering has jammed Democratic-leaning voters into just a few districts (a process called “packing”) and broken up democratic-leaning communities outside those few districts to create more safe Republican seats (a process called “cracking”). Both techniques result in the unequal and unfair distribution of Democratic voters, preventing them from choosing representatives who reflect their values and needs.
The candidates C2C supports are committed to expanding democracy and creating a system in which every vote counts.
Unfortunately, our work does not progress on a level playing field. Of the 13 candidates for the state legislature that C2C supported, only one -- Diamond Staton-Williams -- actually benefited from redistricting. She ran and won in a fast-growing Democratic-leaning district in the southwest corner of Cabarrus County. All the rest were running in districts that were changed to make it harder for Democrats to win. This extreme partisan redistricting is part of what cost Brian Farkas (HD 9) and Ricky Hurtado (HD 63) their seats in the legislature, even though both were extremely well-regarded legislators who also ran excellent campaigns. Both worked for the betterment of their whole district, bringing resources for education, small business development, and broadband into their respective districts. Partisan redistricting made it more difficult for Christy Clark (HD 98) to recapture her seat too. She lost by only 660 votes.
Four other candidates we actively supported with intensive canvassing and phone banking did win, despite partisan redistricting. These candidates included Terrence Everitt (HD 35), Laura Budd (HD 103), Sydney Batch (SD 17) and Mary Wills Bode. (SD18). In all these cases, the intensive canvassing and phonebanking helped achieve a higher turnout.
We also assisted House Minority Leader Robert Reives (HD54) who pointed out in his "thank you" message to voters the importance of a high turnout rate in Chatham County. According to Reives, "Our county had the highest rate of voting, once again beating the other 99 counties with a 65% turnout...and the result speaks for itself: our slate of candidates won every race up and down the ballot. "
As Justin King, Carolina Forward Research Fellow, explains, this was not the case in other counties where "precinct-level data indicates Cheri Beasley was attracting voters that were also voting for Republican candidates down-ticket. In 54 of the 120 State House districts, Cheri Beasley was the leading vote getter. However, legislative Democrats only won 49 of the 54 districts that Beasley carried." In other words, the Democratic State House candidate ran behind Beasley in these districts. The same is true, according to King, in several State Senate Districts that Beasley carried, but not with strong enough coattails to elect the Senate candidate (SD 3,7, and 11).
We may not be able to control the districts we are boxed into right now, but we can do something about the turnout in those districts.
This first step is to figure out why we aren’t reaching all parts of the Democratic coalition.
Why is it that young voters — including those 26-40 who have the most to gain from good democratic policies — do not see that it is in their interest to make time to come out and vote?
Why did fewer Black voters turn up in 2022 than in the 2018 midterm? Statewide, the gap between White and Black voters increased from 8% (2018) to 16 percent (2022). Bob Hall found that only when there were black candidates for Sheriff did the percentage of Black voters rise.
The data also indicate that we didn't get the surge in pro-choice, suburban white women voters that had been predicted. As a result, Democrats continue to have a dismal showing of 35% among suburban voters and 36% among rural voters. What do we need to do to change that?
I believe Democrats can build the kind of infrastructure that enables us to reach out to every potential voter in our counties, learn from them about what they care about, and then make clear to them that — if they join us —we will do everything we can to deliver policies and programs that meet their needs. This effort must include reaching out to unaffiliated voters whose numbers now exceed those of either party.
Maybe we can learn from the strategy adopted by John Fetterman in his successful run for US Senator from Pennsylvania. Fetterman writes:
From day one of this campaign, I knew that if we went everywhere and fought for every single vote, we would win. Just days before we officially announced our campaign, I wrote an op-ed talking about the importance of Democrats speaking to and fighting for voters everywhere — not just in Pennsylvania’s biggest cities. And it’s why we launched the campaign with “Every County, Every Vote” as our slogan.
The truth is that “every county, every vote” is more than a slogan or a strategy to win an election. It is also my vision for how I will govern in the Senate, because no community, no town, no individual should ever feel left behind. I traveled all across the state and to counties that Democrats often ignore not to simply win votes but to hear from the people who live there and learn what keeps them up at night. If I know them and I know the challenges they face, I can better fight for them in Congress. (my emphasis) That’s how leaders should lead.
Another critical component to winning this race is that we didn’t compromise on our core values. Even as I traveled to these Republican strongholds, I stayed true to what I believed in. I said the same thing in red counties like Elk and Clarion that I said in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. I talked about how healthcare is a human right. I talked about the importance of protecting abortion rights. I talked about defending our democracy. And I never wavered in my support for criminal justice reform, even as Republicans spent millions weaponizing it against me. I spoke about taking on corporate greed and the CEOs who’ve been ripping off working people and getting away with it for decades.
By Election Day, Pennsylvanians knew I would stand up for them — and they also knew who I would stand up against. ...
Fetterman's message seems clear to me. If we reach out to people where they are, make clear what we stand for as Democrats, they will want to come out and vote with us and for us. That's the only way we can take back the House and the Senate and build a state that really works for all of us, not just some of us.
So — join us! Help us build the year-round infrastructure we need to get out the vote for elections. Help us shape messages that speak to your neighbors. Help hold the Democratic candidates in your district and across the state accountable to meeting the needs of all of us. If we devote ourselves to these goals then over the next election cycles we can build stronger, more democratic communities able to fight for the values we believe in, and — county by county — we can reclaim our democracy.
Note: This article is based on reading the many analyses of the election identified in the resources below. It is also based on a careful review of the turnout data for all our races, painstakingly organized by Woody Setzer, C2C and OCDP Data Analyst.
To find detailed analyses of all C2C-backed candidates’ 2022 races, please see the Election Results Page.
Resources:
A Fuller Picture of the 2022 Midterm by Carolina Forward
NC Voter Turnout in the Midterms: What the Data Show for Various Groups by Policy Watch
Falling Short: Why Democrats Keep Losing Most Statewide Races by WFAE 90.7, Charlotte’s NPR
With Turnout Data Finalized, a New Assessment of 2022's Mid-Term Election in NC by Old North State Politics
The Year in Review: 2022 by Capitol Tonight Staff, Spectrum News 1
Taking “Every County, Every Vote” to the U.S. Senate by John Fetterman, Democracy Docket